[A] Removing the Page then Post Roll

[ATh e a r t]

Please do not vote in the poll or post until you read this post and understand my reasoning against this form of picking out winners

So my suggestion is to remove the page then post roll thing. I mean, for good. Not just for one event, but all future events in general. My reasoning is that it is unfair to people.

I'm guessing you're thinking... "But they still get rolled! It's fair!" Here's my logic. I've previously explained this to someone else, and I shall use the same example, which is using the Valentine's flaffle.

(( The thread for the rolling can be found here. ))

Even though people are rolled each time, each roll does not mean they are qualified to win a Soq. Yes, I said qualify.

Pretty much how I see page and the post rolls is this:
1. The first roll determines 15 people who qualify to possibly win a Soquili.
2. The second roll determines the actual winner.

Confusing? Here's the actual example:

V-day Roll 1: (page 10)
1. MoochiLove
2. -- NekoGamer --
3. dracoXK
4. Lita Rutherford
5. Devil NightShade
6. lysia_nyteblade
7. SkyDragono
8. zephira738
9. Syaoran-Puu
10. Thamin
11. magnadearel
12. Gl!tch~
13. yoko lorako
14. Dixie
15. JetAlmeara

V-day Roll 2: (pg. 2)
1. Muffinsbaby
2. Skypriestess
3. Caitlyn Hellstorm
4. Muffinsbaby
5. Alanna the Pirate Queen
6. Lunarflowermaiden
7. tefla
8. ATh e a r t
9. Kara Asumie
10. Revolutionary Roniel
11. White Neko Chan
12. Zakiax
13. punkysise
14. Skypriestess
15. Lolli McHotpants

V-day Roll 3: (pg. 1)
1. LydaLynn

V-day Roll 3: (pg. 4)
1. LunaRei_SilverBlood
2. Kurama no Koishi
3. [+Katch+]
4. AlexiaSilver
5. Natelie
6. Rhyleigh
7. nekolulu
8. Frezir
9. Angelique DelaMort
10. Faithofthefallen
11. CheshireKttty
12. XxPrimevalPandaxX
13. Nymphalidae
14. Yuuka Kurokawa

So these were the people that were able to qualify to win an actual Soquili for the first few rolls:
1. MoochiLove
2. -- NekoGamer --
3. dracoXK
4. Lita Rutherford
5. Devil NightShade
6. lysia_nyteblade
7. SkyDragono
8. zephira738
9. Syaoran-Puu
10. Thamin
11. magnadearel
12. Gl!tch~
13. yoko lorako
14. Dixie
15. JetAlmeara
16. Muffinsbaby
17. Skypriestess
18. Caitlyn Hellstorm
19. Muffinsbaby
20. Alanna the Pirate Queen
21. Lunarflowermaiden
22. tefla
23. ATh e a r t
24. Kara Asumie
25. Revolutionary Roniel
26. White Neko Chan
27. Zakiax
28. punkysise
29. Skypriestess
30. Lolli McHotpants
31. LydaLynn
32. LunaRei_SilverBlood
33. Kurama no Koishi
34. [+Katch+]
35. AlexiaSilver
36. Natelie
37. Rhyleigh
38. nekolulu
39. Frezir
40. Angelique DelaMort
41. Faithofthefallen
42. CheshireKttty
43. XxPrimevalPandaxX
44. Nymphalidae
45. Yuuka Kurokawa

Everyone else who's pages were not rolled? They didn't even get a chance to be on that secondary list. That secondary list, that second roll is the one that actually determines the winners. Every single person on a page that was not rolled was not actually part of the roll for a Soquili.

So pretty much, it's like the page roll is a 'screening' process in which determines those who have an actual chance at the prize.

Please don't say anything about 'why are you posting about this now' or 'why do you care? you were on the list' or other rude things...

Unless someone can prove to me that this isn't unfair, I really feel like it should be removed for good =/  

[Three Tailed Fox]

I've always felt the same way about this method of rolling - it really does lower ones' chances. It's much fairer when each person has a one-in-whatever (however many people entered) chance of winning than the elimination process caused by the page rolling.

However, I also feel like compiling a list of every single entrant isn't as feasible for this shop. When you've got 3 pages of entrants (45 people), it's not that difficult to put them on a list - that's why that method is used in most shops, which are generally smaller than Soquili. When you have, literally, 20+ pages of people entering everything the way this shop always does, it becomes an absolutely ridiculous task to make a 300+ person list, and keep it completely accurate. When you're dealing with that many people, there's a larger margin for error, and those errors might not be caught because of the size of the list. So I completely understand the use of this method in this situation.

Unfortunately, there's no easy way to work this out, in my opinion. :C  

[ATh e a r t]

List making is annoying, which is understandable, but see.... XD It's a lot easier than doing the raffle tickets were people could buy like... 1111 tickets, etc. Which is a lot harder and the shop does do that consistently... so yeah XD <3  

[Thy Reaper]

Thy can understand this is a very large shop. He can understand that taking down names on each page can be very time consuming and that it's hard to keep track of people when there are just so many flooding in each day. He also feels that there has to be a better way of handling a list like that. Such as making a cut off time to catch up on the list more easily. Or having two people working the thread at a time. One tracking odd pages and the other tracking even pages.

Much like ATHeart, Thy does not feel that it was fair to everyone that put in to enter for the Valentines day flaffle (And yes, Thy is just gonna run with that as an example to make it easier since it was used in thread.) to be "weeded" out by page number instead of a fair play of the number of people who entered. It really did feel like one had to qualify to actually win. "If you're not on this page, you're SOL. Sorry." It feels very one sided. And it also feels like a waste of time, watching the thread to see for new updates and what not and after spending all that time to be excluded from the game...? Well that sucks. It's like never getting picked in a game of duck-duck-goose; Ever.

As Thy said he understands when a shop gets this large, it's going to be difficult to keep up with games like that, but keeping fairness and the happiness of the people who are actually taking the time to come to your shop and keep it as giant as it is today is important. If the stress of running a flaffle and keeping it fair at the same time is too much, then maybe they just shouldn't be run in the future at all. Do a different, less involved game.

And that's Thy's two cents.
Thank you for bring this up, ATHeart. Thy was considering it himself, but he hadn't the time.

 

[Kirowyn Love]

I agree that that particular raffle method seems like it's not quite fair.

While it is time consuming to make a list of all the entrants, I know that the customers at Soquili put a lot of time into the shop just like the staff. Maybe Soquili could hire a list updater for big raffles like that? Someone to keep track of the list and update the front if the colorist isn't going to be around enough or just doesn't have the time?  

[ATh e a r t]

Kirowyn Love

I agree that that particular raffle method seems like it's not quite fair.

While it is time consuming to make a list of all the entrants, I know that the customers at Soquili put a lot of time into the shop just like the staff. Maybe Soquili could hire a list updater for big raffles like that? Someone to keep track of the list and update the front if the colorist isn't going to be around enough or just doesn't have the time?

I remember in a lot of the threads, staff have said that hiring is not an option, though besides that, i've seen a lot of people willing to volunteer their time C: <3  

[Kirowyn Love]

Oh? Why wouldn't hiring be an option? Or even asking for volunteers? Or having a list of volunteers that are reliable that people vote on?  

[ATh e a r t]

I don't remember the reason, but I'm pretty sure that came from Mind or Fel XD;

As for lists of volunteers... I'd be up for it, but I guess it all just depends on what Sisi and the rest of the staff think >.

[LunaRei_SilverBlood]

I've seen people in the past make lists for colorist that simply didn't have the time to do it, for breedings before. And people ALWAYS volunteer for it. So I think finding a volunteer is a very possible, and GOOD option. It helps out the colorists as well.  

[Ririka]

It has be stated by myself and other staff in the past that we will not hire unless absolutely needed [ie, someone steps down from their positions and it needs to be filled by someone], and because we have enough people on staff to keep up with as it is.

Plus, as it goes, Luna is correct, if you notice someone is not keeping up with or making a list for something, and enough time has passed, people do lend out a hand to help, and usually it is accepted.

Either that, or the staff member in question already has a personal volunteer on or off staff that they go to if they know they can't keep up, so the position could already be filled.

 

[Nyx Queen of Darkness]

Moxxie, true. But it's not a good idea in threads that people can ask questions in like in Atheart's example. Because they had 15 posts, but some were questions and not qualifying entries. However, if there was a seperate thread for question, that could be good?

I've never liked this form of rolling. Sure it's less time-consuming, but it feels less fair. I know that there were some concerns raised about it last year, February/March I believe and for a time it wasn't prevalent because of that.  

[slimycrow]

If there are 15 pages, with 15 posts on each page, you have a 1/225 chance of winning.

If a page is chosen at random, the odds of being on that page are 1/15 then the odds of being picked of the 15 people on that page are 1/15. To calculate the total odds of being picked BOTH times, as in on the correct page, and the correct post you multiply your probabilities. (1/15) (1/15) = 1/225.

1/225=1/2525 So thus mathematically, you have the same odds of being chosen each time.

The method seems unfair, because choosing a page number first means every time a roll is started you have a 1/15 chance of being chosen, so you could get the same page more than once. However, since all 15 pages have an equal chance, and all 15 posts on each page have an equal chance, this method of rolling is equal.  

[Revolutionary Roniel]

The problem I see with this method is that no, all pages do not have 15 posts. The first page will never have 15 posts because some will be taken up by the instructions and whatnot. The last page often won't have 15 posts either.

Flaffles really aren't supposed to be about speed, but this puts an advantage in the hands of the people who post fast enough to get on that first page. So someone posting on the first page with maybe only 7 posts would have a huge advantage over someone who posted on a page with the full 15 posts. This was seen in the v-day flaffle where page one only had one entry on it... meaning that this person had something like a 1/14 chance of winning outright instead of 1/150 or whatever the odds were for most people.

I'm not overly fond of the pick a page and then pick a post method for this reason. It also leaves room for people being tempted to post and then delete on the page that they're on so they can up their odds from 1/15 if their page was chosen to 1/14.

Even though a full list might take longer, it would definitively make sure that everyone had the same chance.

Also... it would be much easier for double entries to slip past if a full list wasn't made.  

[ATh e a r t]

slimycrow

If there are 15 pages, with 15 posts on each page, you have a 1/225 chance of winning.

If a page is chosen at random, the odds of being on that page are 1/15 then the odds of being picked of the 15 people on that page are 1/15. To calculate the total odds of being picked BOTH times, as in on the correct page, and the correct post you multiply your probabilities. (1/15) (1/15) = 1/225.

1/225=1/2525 So thus mathematically, you have the same odds of being chosen each time.

The method seems unfair, because choosing a page number first means every time a roll is started you have a 1/15 chance of being chosen, so you could get the same page more than once. However, since all 15 pages have an equal chance, and all 15 posts on each page have an equal chance, this method of rolling is equal.

Sorry, but I don't think you clearly read my post on how the first roll is different from the second roll. Using what someone else said, the first roll is 'weeding' out the people that actually have a chance at a Soq. The SECOND roll is the only actual roll that is to qualify for a Soq or not.

Your last part, you have to admit that all the pages -did not- get an equal chance because they were -never- rolled for the chance at the Soquili.

So difference is:
First roll: Deciding which 15 get a chance.
Second roll: Deciding the 1 person to win.

So unless EVERY SINGLE PAGE got the second roll, then no, it wouldn't be fair.

And as Roni pointed out, not all pages will have 15 posts for the flaffle. That means that some people have a BETTER chance than others. So no, I would not agree to this math.