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Before I went out to get breakfast this morning, I saw a news report on NBC about Barack Obama's announcement yesterday that he's officially in the presidential race. No one was surprised by that speech-- after all, he'd already formed an exploratory committee, and I don't think there's ever been anyone who didn't run after taking that step. What did surprise me were the poll results mentioned in that same story. They showed Obama third among the current Democratic contenders, trailing not only Hilary Clinton but also John Edwards.

What the hell? The only reason anyone remembers Edwards is because he was John Kerry's running mate, and that's hardly a recommendation-- sure, I voted for Kerry, but that was mainly because the alternative was so much worse. Apart from that brief moment of national recognition, Edwards is a non-entity. And whatever his legislative accomplishments, he's as lacking in charisma as the last two Democratic nominees, and we really don't need another candidate like that. Hasn't anyone figured out why Bill Clinton was the only Democrat to win the presidency in the past couple of decades? It's because he had enough charm and personality to make people overlook his personal flaws. His politics mattered less than how he came across on television.

Obama has the clear advantage of not only that same level of high-voltage charisma-- if of a distinctly different sort from Clinton's-- but also a lack of those weaknesses of character. I'm sure someone will try and turn up some dirt on him as the race wears on, but at the moment his record appears flawless. (Is that what that klutz Joe Biden was trying to say in his ill-advised remarks?) I expect the main area where he'll be attacked is on his opposition to the Iraq war; we've already seen this happen with an utterly bizarre statement from Australian prime minister John Howard, who ludicrously claims that an Obama victory would "destabilize and destroy Iraq, and create chaos and victory for the terrorists". I expect to see those sorts of words recycled in the campaign rhetoric of any Republican pandering to Bush's supporters. But such an attack strategy will backfire, because the majority of the American people are no longer with Bush and this war, and have been further angered by his arrogant refusal to listen to anyone else's opinion and his obvious contempt for the very people who elected him. Obama's opposition to the war can only work in his favor, and unlike other potential candidates, he can point to a consistent record in this regard-- no one can credibly accuse him of "flip-flopping" the way they did with Kerry.

I'm less surprised that Obama is trailing Hilary Clinton in the current polls, simply because she has the greater name recognition; but while she's had a successful Senate career and a visible role in the anti-war effort, I don't think she would be able to win the presidency. This has nothing to do with her gender; rather, it has to do with the intense hatred so many on the far right continue to hold for her; and however unfair and unreasonable that hatred is, it's also a powerful political tool, because it can be used to mobilize the same hard-right, evangelical voter base that was so important to Bush. Obama, in contrast, carries none of that baggage, and his legislative record provides few opportunities for savage criticism, in part because he's been successful at working with members of both parties throughout his Senate career. Bush once claimed to be "a uniter, not a divider" before becoming the most divisive president in this nation's history, eclipsing even Richard Nixon; but Obama has the potential to be a truly unifying figure, the one candidate who can bridge the gap between the right and the left without compromising his own principles.

I expect that, as Obama becomes more visible on the national scene, the poll results will start to shift in his favor. I also expect that a lot more attention will be focused on his race, and on the question of whether or not an African-American candidate can win the presidency. As far as I'm concerned, it shouldn't even be an issue. Obama is simply the right person for the job, and his leadership abilities and his record in the Senate are all that should matter. He's the best chance the Democrats have had in years to re-take the White House, and I've hoped he would run ever since his speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. The primary season is a long ways off, and a lot could change between now and then; but I hope that when it's all finished, Obama will be the Democratic nominee. He's the only candidate I can vote for without any reservations or qualifications.